Today was mixed, I was trying out a trading strategy where if the price of the horse dropped below 1.5 then place a back bet into the market at 1.3. This would be a fairly reasonable assumption, as the price will always tend to 1.01 as the horse nears the finish line in first place. This worked on the first race and turned a neat 1.31 profit. On the second race this was a little too vague and the price came in to 1.3 but then went out to around 2.5 as another horse overtook. If I were more alert I could have backed the other horse or should have looked at dutching the two prominent horses. Either way, I lost £3.98 on this race and am £2.67 down on the day. I think over more races with slightly tighter limits this would be a pretty good tactic but I saw the loss and decided enough was enough for the day!
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About Me
- firedave
- Hello! I'm David and have embarked on a new plan to trade for a living - I like a challenge! Since graduating in 2004, I've been working as an IT Consultant and am now hoping to put those skills into use and develop my trading capabilities. Looking forward to the journey...
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- Adapt & Survive
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- Full-time Traders Mindset
- JS' Betfair Journal
- kokoooooooo
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- Peter Webb blog
- Probability Theory (Peter Webb)
- Productive Firefox
- Professional Gambler
- Scraping a Living
- Sports Betting News
- Toytrader
- Trading Tennis
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1 comments:
Coming back to this post, this is a not a reliable tactic in any way, shape or form. When looking at races over time, you will see that a large proportion of them trade under 2 and even below 1.5 before the price drifts. In play trading is hard to predict, but the only time this would be a good tactic to employ would be if you were watching the race and not the figures.
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