Firedave trading Betfair with Bet Angel

Documenting my experiences with Bet Angel using BetFair. This will be used to record my progress as I take trading on full time.

Bet Angel - The most effective tool for Betfair
May 27, 2010

Rely on Murray

From a trading perspective, Murray is someone you can rely on! I can't remember where I first read about him being so reliable but it really is true. I think it has only been a couple of matches that haven't gone either completely as expected or no matter what view you initially take on his price the match will give you a profitable exit at some point. If you backed Murray at the start which is quite likely since Chela doesn't really have any weapons to beat Murray then you could get out after the first set with a profit. If you took the opinion to lay Murray initially then he gave you a nice out when he dropped the second and looked likely to lose the third. 1.25 to 1.48 in that scenario. The match is still going but wanted to show that tennis is a momentum game and this is great for trading!

If ever momentum was a decider in tennis just take a look at the Petkovic vs Kuznetsova 2nd round match at Roland Garros yesterday.  I couldn't believe what I was watching when Petkovic kept making shot after shot and went to a 6-4 5-4 lead. With four (4) match points how could this have gone any other way than a win for Petkovic?  I would have loved to have seen the odds on this match - if anyone has the betfair odds I would love to see it. Anyway, Kuznetsova decided to string a few shots together and turned the whole match on its head. From watching this match initially you couldn't tell Petkovic plays practically on "full tilt". When shots started to miss the lines though you did sense that she didn't really have any other game. Kuznetsova did have a more reliable middle game which saw her through to the next round. I don't think I have witnessed anything quite like the turn around in fortunes before.

Anyone else getting the feeling that there has been more rain delays at the French open than at Wimbledon with its new roof...however, back to watch the 8th replay of Murray vs Gasquet. I wonder who wins this time?!

May 17, 2010


"Captain Paul Collingwood said England's World Twenty20 triumph rivalled the 2005 and 2009 Ashes Test series successes over Australia." BBC Sport.

I'm not too sure about that but a great win none the less. Hopefully England can take some of their form into the Ashes. I could say here that the players who actually won this match were all born outside of England, but they claimed their allegiance to England and that's all that matters. Come on South Africa... I mean England!

Trading carried on in a similar vein as yesterday. Managing to take good early positions and close out quickly. A few times the money went away from me I was sitting on the right side of it for once. Makes a change but I think these things even themselves out overall. My biggest loss on the day was a £4 bet I put on for a mate (he'll be coughing up later!) The interesting thing with that race is I tried trading it and ended up with 0. There were 2 horses that had a personal reference to him and neither came in the top 4.

I'm not trading the evening races today, as I am far too tired. I've learned from previous bitter experience that trading whilst tired is a recipe for disaster. Not only are you not in any good positions but your reactions become much slower and you're not as ready to change your opinion on what is good value. Better to be safe and sorry whilst the bank is growing. The main aim is to grow in confidence to continue to exit bad positions and keep taking good positions. All other times just be patient and WAIT!

May 13, 2010

York Trials

There was plenty of money sloshing about in the markets today and this proved to be helpful. I still had a few scares, but I dealt with them calmly and still took profits away from them. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the day didn't show any negatives but I know this is the exception rather than the norm! Hopefully similar tomorrow as the York trials continue and Newbury gets under way.  I thought since it has been a while that I had posted my profit and loss I would do one so as to show I am still working away.

One of the biggest things I have learned is that the accumulation of small profits does soon add up to a decent day, as long as you manage the losses. Being willing to scratch a trade and change your mind is key to long term profitability.  Emotions seem to be the biggest player in losses. Humans get attached to a particular price representing value, and if this then turns against us it becomes much more difficult to take a can we be wrong?!

May 11, 2010

Trading Course

I recently attended a course on how to trade (profitably) in Madrid with Jack Birkhead.

I've now got a much clearer strategy on how I am going to increase my bank and stakes over time.  I have been using the techniques over the last week and have had some success. There are a few key things that I fall into quite regularly which for me would help a huge amount if I stopped these. I could and probably will write a full post on things I would like to cut out of my trading to give me something to look back on and rate myself by.

It was nice to get some sun and to speak with someone who actually makes money from trading.  I don't think I am trading in an incorrect manner and see a lot of similarities with what I do to what Jack does. There are a lot of little things that when tweaked could make all the difference between success and failure. The line really is that slim.