Firedave trading Betfair with Bet Angel

Documenting my experiences with Bet Angel using BetFair. This will be used to record my progress as I take trading on full time.

Bet Angel - The most effective tool for Betfair
Jun 4, 2010

The Results Are In...


Thank you to everyone who took the time to vote. The poll is now closed and the results are in. The question was
Would you be interested in additional charting functions for BetFair?
A few didn't think it would be of use or didn't know but the majority were open to something being provided mainly if it were free. For me to go down the free route, I can and would do this but like my blog give the opportunity for adverts to be displayed. This means that the application would be free to use but also generate some revenue for writing the application. I haven't taken much time over the last couple of months working through the charts as I wanted to get an idea of how popular they would be, and as only a small percentage of my readers have voted I guess that the majority are happy with the functions provided by their choice of trading platform of BetFair website.  I will endeavour to get a first release together over the upcoming few months and provide screenshots of what is on offer for your perusal!

I have been asked to do a book review as well - I am always open to do these if you have a book waiting to be published and would like some extra exposure. This book in particular is called "Delivering Happiness" by Tony Hsieh. He co-founded LinkExchange which he sold to Microsoft for $265 million. He then joined Zappos as an adviser and investor, and eventually became CEO.  I will be doing a review of this book next week and running a small competition to give away an advanced reading copy which he has kindly donated for his upcoming release.  Rules and how-tos will be coming up next week!

Dementieva provided some nice trading opportunities today but the talking point has to be the way the game ended. The first set was a battle and Dementieva had opportunities in the first set to break and get ahead. The set ended being a tie break which she lost and on the way to the change of ends she conceded the match.  There were no obvious signs of injury although the reason given was a pain in her calf.  From a trading perspective, these are things to watch out for, if possible don't have an open position between sets - I find that taking a stance on a particular outcome for a couple of games with a stop loss and then closing out has been working pretty well for me this tournament.  I was pretty lucky since my original assessment was that Dementieva would win this match but after the first 7 games this was becoming increasingly apparent that the match was going to be tough. Even so, to end the way it did must've caught a fair few people out.

Due to the early finish I traded the next match between Jankovic and Stosur.  The form Stosur is in at the moment made her favourite and the ease she took to the first point meant I had my money in early. An easy win in the end 6-1 6-2. This sets up a rather incredible final, two players never to have reached the French Open final Schiavone and Stosur.  Stosur is now favourite to win having been odds of 150-1 prior to the tournament.

Jun 2, 2010

Nadal Odds

I thought this was an interesting image - especially to those who have no idea about the amounts being traded on tennis matches. Nadal is obviously a very talented tennis player and clay court seems to be his preferred surface. This would put the odds in his favour massively - whilst I have been watching this match his price was in the 1.23 when he went 3-0 down in the first set. He rallied though and came back to win the set in the tie break. This image was taken a couple of games into the second set. There is 2.5 million pounds just waiting to be matched on the lay side and half a million on the back.  At this particular point there has been 10.5 million pounds matched so far. This is the most I've seen on a particular sport to date and I am normally wary of joining the back of £40k waiting but here there are instances where there is £400k - £600k that I have joined and been matched with quite comfortably.

Knowing a fair bit about the game of tennis too, I have found there are some sweet moves you can get.  I don't know whether this will work for all matches but I've found the price doesn't move horrendously like horse racing unless a big upset like the favourite dropping a set just happens. Even then it isn't unrecoverable. Scalping through the games seems a lot safer than any pre race trading I've done however the opportunities are far less frequent. I will definitely be getting involved in a few more games. Wimbledon and the world cup round the corner!

Jun 1, 2010

Shock...


It had to happen, sad news. Hot off the press - Federer loses.  His opponent is somewhat of a giant beater, by knocking Nadal out of the French last year, Robin Soderling looked awesome on court. Federer was unable to get into the points to really cause him much trouble. There was a brief scare when Federer broke Soderlings serve in the 4th set but he immediately broke back and in some style. The peak in the graph is when Federer took the first set but then it was all Soderling and the price just shortened. Normally this is where you would lay the short price looking for Federer to rally, but watching the tennis it just didn't look that likely to come so I didn't put anything on. I just watched in shock and awe as he was just outplayed. Absolutely amazing.  Those who enjoy Murray doing well will be happy to know that Tomas Berdych has just gone through in straight sets which will be of some comfort to know he is in good form!

May 27, 2010

Rely on Murray


From a trading perspective, Murray is someone you can rely on! I can't remember where I first read about him being so reliable but it really is true. I think it has only been a couple of matches that haven't gone either completely as expected or no matter what view you initially take on his price the match will give you a profitable exit at some point. If you backed Murray at the start which is quite likely since Chela doesn't really have any weapons to beat Murray then you could get out after the first set with a profit. If you took the opinion to lay Murray initially then he gave you a nice out when he dropped the second and looked likely to lose the third. 1.25 to 1.48 in that scenario. The match is still going but wanted to show that tennis is a momentum game and this is great for trading!



If ever momentum was a decider in tennis just take a look at the Petkovic vs Kuznetsova 2nd round match at Roland Garros yesterday.  I couldn't believe what I was watching when Petkovic kept making shot after shot and went to a 6-4 5-4 lead. With four (4) match points how could this have gone any other way than a win for Petkovic?  I would have loved to have seen the odds on this match - if anyone has the betfair odds I would love to see it. Anyway, Kuznetsova decided to string a few shots together and turned the whole match on its head. From watching this match initially you couldn't tell Petkovic plays practically on "full tilt". When shots started to miss the lines though you did sense that she didn't really have any other game. Kuznetsova did have a more reliable middle game which saw her through to the next round. I don't think I have witnessed anything quite like the turn around in fortunes before.

Anyone else getting the feeling that there has been more rain delays at the French open than at Wimbledon with its new roof...however, back to watch the 8th replay of Murray vs Gasquet. I wonder who wins this time?!

May 17, 2010

Owzat!

"Captain Paul Collingwood said England's World Twenty20 triumph rivalled the 2005 and 2009 Ashes Test series successes over Australia." BBC Sport.


I'm not too sure about that but a great win none the less. Hopefully England can take some of their form into the Ashes. I could say here that the players who actually won this match were all born outside of England, but they claimed their allegiance to England and that's all that matters. Come on South Africa... I mean England!

Trading carried on in a similar vein as yesterday. Managing to take good early positions and close out quickly. A few times the money went away from me I was sitting on the right side of it for once. Makes a change but I think these things even themselves out overall. My biggest loss on the day was a £4 bet I put on for a mate (he'll be coughing up later!) The interesting thing with that race is I tried trading it and ended up with 0. There were 2 horses that had a personal reference to him and neither came in the top 4.

I'm not trading the evening races today, as I am far too tired. I've learned from previous bitter experience that trading whilst tired is a recipe for disaster. Not only are you not in any good positions but your reactions become much slower and you're not as ready to change your opinion on what is good value. Better to be safe and sorry whilst the bank is growing. The main aim is to grow in confidence to continue to exit bad positions and keep taking good positions. All other times just be patient and WAIT!

May 13, 2010

York Trials

There was plenty of money sloshing about in the markets today and this proved to be helpful. I still had a few scares, but I dealt with them calmly and still took profits away from them. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the day didn't show any negatives but I know this is the exception rather than the norm! Hopefully similar tomorrow as the York trials continue and Newbury gets under way.  I thought since it has been a while that I had posted my profit and loss I would do one so as to show I am still working away.

One of the biggest things I have learned is that the accumulation of small profits does soon add up to a decent day, as long as you manage the losses. Being willing to scratch a trade and change your mind is key to long term profitability.  Emotions seem to be the biggest player in losses. Humans get attached to a particular price representing value, and if this then turns against us it becomes much more difficult to take a loss...how can we be wrong?!

May 11, 2010

Trading Course



I recently attended a course on how to trade (profitably) in Madrid with Jack Birkhead.

I've now got a much clearer strategy on how I am going to increase my bank and stakes over time.  I have been using the techniques over the last week and have had some success. There are a few key things that I fall into quite regularly which for me would help a huge amount if I stopped these. I could and probably will write a full post on things I would like to cut out of my trading to give me something to look back on and rate myself by.

It was nice to get some sun and to speak with someone who actually makes money from trading.  I don't think I am trading in an incorrect manner and see a lot of similarities with what I do to what Jack does. There are a lot of little things that when tweaked could make all the difference between success and failure. The line really is that slim.